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Global Warming Data, Trend and Forecast
Dr. Rich Ferguson, CEERT
Updated November, 2018
Update Note –Global surface temperatures in October 2018 were consistent with the trend and the second warmest October on record. Mild El Niño conditions are expected to be present by November and continue into the spring of 2019. Solar irradiance is approaching the minimum of its ≈11 year cycle, a cooling effect compared to recent years.
Data – Monthly global surface temperature anomaly data (red and blue lines) are monthly differences from the average temperature for that month during the years 1901-2000 and are available from NOAA. The red (blue) lines represent monthly temperatures warmer (cooler) than the trend. Note that 0.2 °C has been added to the NOAA values to account for the difference between the 20th century average and pre-industrial values.
Trend and Projection — The trend shown in the chart is a quadratic fit to the recorded monthly global temperatures since 1960 relative to pre-industrial values. The projection is the continuation of this curve into future times. Note that the projection will change as the historical trend changes in response to new data. Recent temperatures are about half the 2.0 °C target limit established by the Paris agreement. Based on the current projection, global temperatures will be 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels by 2036 and the Paris Agreement’s +2.0 °C target limit would be surpassed around 2053 (see chart.)
July 28, 2014 PPIC statewide survey: Californians and the environment - (pdf)
May 15, 2014 CEERT Quarterly Staff Report January – April 2014 - (pdf)
February 21, 2014 Sierra Club BOD honors John Howard Zierold - (pdf)
February 6, 2014 CEERT Quarterly Staff Report September-December 2013 - (pdf)
March 31, 2013 2011 Annual Report - (pdf)
August 30, 2013 Preliminary Reliability Plan for LA Basin and San Diego - (pdf)
June 25, 2013 The President's Climate Action Plan - (pdf)
May 23, 2013 Global Renewable Energy Market Outlook 2013 - (pdf)
February 27, 2013 The New Energy ROI: Resilience, Optionality, Intelligence - (pdf)
July 13, 2012 Energy Roundtable Discussion: Infrastructure Planning, Cost & Market Implications of the DRECP - (pdf)