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Global Warming Data, Trend and Forecast
Dr. Rich Ferguson, CEERT
Updated April, 2019
Update Note – Global surface temperatures for March 2019 were higher than the trend, making it the 2rd warmest March on record. Temperature was 1.26 °C above pre-industrial values for the first time since the super-El Niño in the winter of 2015-16. Note that the March temperature was only 0.24 °C below the optimistic international limit of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial values. The chart illustrates that monthly temperatures will exceed 1.5 degrees well before the trend reaches that level. Mild El Niño conditions are present and expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer of 2019. Solar irradiance is approaching the minimum of its ≈11 year cycle, a cooling effect compared to recent years.
Data – Monthly global surface temperature anomaly data (red and blue lines) are monthly differences from the average temperature for that month during the years 1901-2000 and are available from NOAA. The red (blue) lines represent monthly temperatures warmer (cooler) than the trend. Note that 0.2 °C has been added to the NOAA values to account for the difference between the 20th century average and pre-industrial values.
Trend and Projection — The trend shown in the chart is a quadratic fit to the recorded monthly global temperatures since 1960 relative to pre-industrial values. The projection is the continuation of this curve into future times. Note that the projection will change as the historical trend changes in response to new data. Recent temperatures are about half the 2.0 °C target limit established by the Paris agreement. Based on the current projection, global temperatures will be 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels in 2036 and the Paris Agreement’s +2.0 °C target limit would be surpassed around 2054 (see chart.)
August 26, 2015 Global Warming Data, Trend and Forecast | Dr. Rich Ferguson, CEERT - (pdf)
March 12, 2015 Renewables Are Driving Up Electricity Prices - Wait, What? - (pdf)
February 10, 2015 CEERT Quarterly Staff Report September-December 2014 - (pdf)
October 6, 2014 CEERT Quarterly Staff Report May-August 2014 - (pdf)
July 28, 2014 PPIC statewide survey: Californians and the environment - (pdf)
May 15, 2014 CEERT Quarterly Staff Report January – April 2014 - (pdf)
February 21, 2014 Sierra Club BOD honors John Howard Zierold - (pdf)
February 6, 2014 CEERT Quarterly Staff Report September-December 2013 - (pdf)
March 31, 2013 2011 Annual Report - (pdf)
August 30, 2013 Preliminary Reliability Plan for LA Basin and San Diego - (pdf)