Center for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Technologies
Providing global warming solutions for California and the West.
Join CEERT Email Newsletter
Global Warming Data, Trend and Forecast
Dr. Rich Ferguson, CEERT
Updated January, 2019
Update Note – Due to the recent government shutdown, the January data update from NOAA was delayed until February 6. According to this update, global surface temperatures in December 2018 were consistent with the trend shown in the chart above, 1.06 °C (1.9 °F) above pre-industrial temperatures (see below). December 2018 was the second warmest December on record. The 2018 annual average was 0.99 °C (1.8 °F) above pre-industrial values, the fourth warmest year on record. Global annual average temperatures for the last five years have been the five warmest on record. Mild El Niño conditions are now present and expected to continue into the spring of 2019. Solar irradiance is approaching the minimum of its ≈11 year cycle, a cooling effect compared to recent years.
Data – Monthly global surface temperature anomaly data (red and blue lines) are monthly differences from the average temperature for that month during the years 1901-2000 and are available from NOAA. The red (blue) lines represent monthly temperatures warmer (cooler) than the trend. Note that 0.2 °C has been added to the NOAA values to account for the difference between the 20th century average and pre-industrial values.
Trend and Projection — The trend shown in the chart is a quadratic fit to the recorded monthly global temperatures since 1960 relative to pre-industrial values. The projection is the continuation of this curve into future times. Note that the projection will change as the historical trend changes in response to new data. Recent temperatures are about half the 2.0 °C target limit established by the Paris agreement. Based on the current projection, global temperatures will be 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels by 2036 and the Paris Agreement’s +2.0 °C target limit would be surpassed around 2054 (see chart.)
February 27, 2013 The New Energy ROI: Resilience, Optionality, Intelligence - (pdf)
July 13, 2012 Energy Roundtable Discussion: Infrastructure Planning, Cost & Market Implications of the DRECP - (pdf)
February 1, 2012 Ivanpah Solar Update Report - (pdf)
December 11, 2011 Ishii Order Dismissing CA Pavley Case - (pdf)
December 7, 2011 Renewable Northwest Project Applauds FERC Ruling on BPA Over-Generation Policy - (pdf)
July 19, 2011 CEERT Update July - (pdf)
July 14, 2011 Salazar Approves Major Renewable Energy Projects, Identifies Next Step in Solar Energy Development - (pdf)
July 12, 2011 Workforce Needs for Distributed Solar Projects - (pdf)
July 1, 2011 CEERT Quarterly Staff Report April-June, 2011 - (pdf)
May 3, 2011 A Health Wreck for America's Children - (pdf)