CEERT Reports

Global Warming Data, Trend and Forecast

Dr. Rich Ferguson, CEERT
Updated June, 2019

 

 

Update Note – Global surface temperatures for May 2019 were slightly less than the trend, but still the 4rd warmest May on record, 1.05 °C above pre-industrial values. The chart illustrates that some monthly temperatures will exceed the optimistic international limit of 1.5 degrees well before the trend reaches that level. Mild El Niño conditions are present and expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer of 2019. Solar irradiance is approaching the minimum of its ≈11 year cycle, a cooling effect compared to recent years.

Data – Monthly global surface temperature anomaly data (red and blue lines) are monthly differences from the average temperature for that month during the years 1901-2000 and are available from NOAA. The red (blue) lines represent monthly temperatures warmer (cooler) than the trend. Note that 0.2 °C has been added to the NOAA values to account for the difference between the 20th century average and pre-industrial values.

Trend and Projection — The trend shown in the chart is a quadratic fit to the recorded monthly global temperatures since 1960 relative to pre-industrial values. The projection is the continuation of this curve into future times. Note that the projection will change as the trend changes in response to new data. Recent temperatures are more than half the 2.0 °C target limit established by the Paris agreement. Based on the current projection, global temperatures will be 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels in 2036 and the Paris Agreement’s +2.0 °C target limit would be surpassed in 2053 (see chart.)

 


 

February 6, 2014 CEERT Quarterly Staff Report September-December 2013 - (pdf)

March 31, 2013 2011 Annual Report - (pdf)

August 30, 2013 Preliminary Reliability Plan for LA Basin and San Diego - (pdf)

June 25, 2013 The President's Climate Action Plan - (pdf)

May 23, 2013 Global Renewable Energy Market Outlook 2013 - (pdf)

February 27, 2013 The New Energy ROI: Resilience, Optionality, Intelligence - (pdf)

July 13, 2012 Energy Roundtable Discussion: Infrastructure Planning, Cost & Market Implications of the DRECP - (pdf)

February 1, 2012 Ivanpah Solar Update Report - (pdf)

December 11, 2011 Ishii Order Dismissing CA Pavley Case - (pdf)

December 7, 2011 Renewable Northwest Project Applauds FERC Ruling on BPA Over-Generation Policy - (pdf)

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